2009年12月16日 星期三

自反理論(theory of reflexivity)

喬治‧索羅斯(George Soros)提出的理論。

閱讀筆記:
自反的例子俯拾皆是。索羅斯在1988年《華爾街日報》的一篇文章指出:「當人們對一種貨幣失去信心,它的跌勢傾向於強化國內的通貨膨脹,因而證實貨幣匯價跌得有道理。當投資人對一家公司的管理階層懷有信心,股價上漲使得管理階層更容易滿足投資人的期望。……起初自我強化,但最後自取其敗的連結關係,我稱之為『自反』。」(Examples of reflexivity abounded. In a 1988 Wall Street Journal article, Soros observed: “When people lose confidence in a cur-rency, its decline tends to reinforce domestic inflation, thereby validating the decline. When investors have confidence in a company’s management, the rise in share price makes it easier for management to fulfil investors’ expectations. . . . I call such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating connec-tions ‘reflexive.’”)(Soros: The Life, Ideas, and Impact of the World's Most Influential Investor

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